Calculate the net proceeds after fees, taxes, foreign exchange, and other costs.
Event-driven research
Small spreads can hide large assumptions.
Special situations are evaluated as contracts and processes, not as ticker symbols. The headline spread matters only after deal terms, closing risk, timing, liquidity, costs, and failure value have been tested.
Special situations
A bounded event needs a complete map.
Harbor examines mergers, tender offers, odd-lot transactions, take-privates, and corporate reorganisations where the payoff depends on a defined event.
The analysis asks who can delay or block the outcome, which conditions must be satisfied, what the investor could lose if the event fails, and whether the expected return remains attractive after fees, taxes, proration, and time.
Practical execution is part of the thesis. Position size, liquidity, settlement mechanics, jurisdiction, and broker constraints can matter as much as the legal headline.
Arbitrage research ledger
41recorded transactions
3.2months average holding period
Selected situations analysed
- Activision BlizzardMerger
- Acceleron PharmaAcquisition
- CernerAcquisition
- Imperial LogisticsTakeover
- MassmartTake-private
- Tsogo Sun GamingCorporate action
Historical internal records; not a performance presentation or investment recommendation.
The decision framework
Five variables decide whether a spread is real.
A large quoted return can disappear when one weak assumption is corrected.
Assess approvals, financing, shareholder votes, counterparties, and closing conditions.
Estimate the realistic path to completion rather than relying on an announced date.
Map the likely value, liquidity, and exit choices if the event breaks or changes.
Account for sizing, proration, settlement, broker rules, and available liquidity.
The spread is not the thesis.
Each mandate defines the event, decision, holding constraints, and required output before the analysis begins.
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